The Steev (seregost) wrote,
The Steev
seregost

yikes

I have been hibernating for awhile on the economic issue. The present escalation of violence in the Middle East has brought me back into the loop. I just found an interesting article that shares a new (to me) viewpoint on the accelerating recession of the American economy. It is from a European magazine - possibly fanatical, but a bit compelling in these interesting times.

It pinpoints the opening of the Oil Bourse in Iran as a critical occurrence in world events. This was scheduled to happen at the end of March 2006, but has since been postponed until September. The basic concept is that Iran would begin pricing oil against the Euro, which could systemically lead to a mass depreciation (if not collapse) of the US dollar.

A collapse of the dollar as reserve currency would cause oil prices to skyrocket in the United States. This would correspondingly cause mass inflation in almost every good and service tied to oil (basically everything). People have already been borrowing from their home equity to sustain the meager economic growth of the last few years. Hence, a collapse of the housing bubble will likely also happen around the same time. The two combined would effectively lead to the loss of buying power for American citizens and corporations. This would then lead to the demise of the current world order - which is *totally* based on the stability of the dollar as a reserve currency.

It is argued that attempts to stabilize the dollar (not just oil) are the real reason behind the situation in Iraq and the Iranian Nuclear Crisis. Without stability of the dollar, the West will essentially collapse in much the same way the Eastern Bloc did in 1989.

If this were to come to pass, a new world order will then begin - and the United States will be a much less significant player. This is why I think everyone should be paying close attention to the current situation in the Middle East. Any spark can lead to a rapid escalation of this *very* delicate situation (think World War I).
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